从实践的页岩生产在美国增加了ally nothing in 2000 to more than 13 billion cubic feet per day, or about 30% of the country�s natural-gas supply, heading toward 50% in coming years. There has been an increase in growth in drilling for shale oil and NGLs in USA over the past two years. US ethane supplies are forecasted to double by 2016, compared with the levels seen before the shale boom, to over 1.4 mln bpd. As a result, the US ethylene industry has seen a revival and restart of idled units, amid significant capacity expansions by either debottlenecking or new world-scale crackers. Several large scale ethylene makers in the US have made their foray into shale gas. As per Nexant, this increased production has been the primary driver for renewed profitability and growth in the North American petrochemical industry. Companies are now considering major capacity additions in the United States for the first time in decades. This is in response to rising margins and enhanced U.S. competitiveness due to attractively priced ethane relative to the cost of naphtha, the principal steam cracker feedstock in other major markets. Specifically, multiple brownfield capacity additions are being considered as well as several greenfield projects in the U.S. Gulf Coast and U.S. Northeast near the Marcellus shale gas resource. These major capacity additions are being developed even though growth in North American demand for ethylene derivatives over the next five to ten years is not expected to be able to absorb more than minor increases in regional production. Rising US ethane production is fuelling expectations that Middle Eastern producers might soon be fighting to preserve their hold on the European market. Fitch sees the increased availability of cheap natural gas liquids (NGL) feedstocks as a critical factor supporting the competitive position of North American commodity chemicals makers as it will push them down the cost curve vs global competitors. Technology to force natural gas from its underground source rock, shale, has transformed the energy picture of the United States in the past six years, and China-sitting on reserves some 50% larger than those of the U.S.- has taken note, as per National Geographic. China�s technically recoverable reserves are estimated at 1,275 trillion cubic feet vs the 2,000 trillion cubic feet estimated for North America. Issues that might limit this potential include a lack of water resources around China�s western shale reserves and the deep nature of some basins, coupled with hilly terrain. China lacks the extensive pipeline network that has enabled the United States to so quickly bring its new natural gas bounty to market. These factors combined with Chinese companies� relative inexperience are likely to make such projects more costly than their US counterparts and for this reason, Booz & Co expects that Chinese shale gas projects will not result in a substantial increase in production until 2020. The shale gas revolution underway in USA and China has not been replicated in Europe. Countries in the European Union have barely broken ground on shale gas, with some 20 test drills compared with estimates of almost 35,000 sites in the United States, as per Reuters. Though a disadvantage to the petrochemical industry, it could prove to be the unlikely saviour of long-term EU efforts to spur renewables and curb greenhouse gases. In Europe, gas is likely to mean conventional gas for the foreseeable future as the barriers to shale stay high. Higher population density and different rules on land and resources ownership explain in part why progress has been so much slower in shale exploration in Europe than in the United States. Environmental impact studies are under way in several countries to examine fracking. Interestingly EIA has down revised the estimated unproven technically recoverable resource of US shale gas to 482 trillion cubic feet, down from an earlier estimate of 827 trillion feet.

根据gtforum.com，美国页岩气的兴起已经开始影响丙烯和乙烯之间的差异。由于乙烷由于丰度而开始越来越多地用作美国乙烯破裂的原料，因此它将导致使用Naphtha作为原料的使用减少，从而导致丙烯的短缺。丙烯相对于乙烯的定价在北美已经开始扩大。到2025年，美国市场可能会增加45％的乙烯供应，从而为我们的石化生产商带来了可观的竞争优势。产品将以更具竞争力的价格出口到欧洲。这将对欧洲的生产产生一定的影响，尤其是在市场漫长的情况下。预计这将产生重大的长期影响，包括根据石油和天然气杂志，美国乙烯衍生物与中东供应竞争的可能性。Naphtha是欧洲用于乙烯生产的关键原料。该地区的饼干遇到了美国聚乙烯出口可能取代的生产效率低下的问题。但是，目前，欧洲是中东的重要出口市场。 Encroaching into the European market by US exports constitutes a potential threat and will play a vital role in the dynamics of the Middle East. It will be a challenge for Middle Eastern producers to defend market share while preserving margins. Interestingly, the Middle Eastern producers are beginning to lose their competitive cost advantage as faced with reduced ethane avails, they increasingly use naphtha sourced from the open markets. Since Asian producers do not have any feedstock advantage, they do not pose a challenge to their European counterparts. However, growing capacities in the region scheduled to come onstream over the next few years will increase the APAC region�s petrochemical self sufficiency and reduce imports, resulting in larger availability of polymer exports from the Middle East to Europe. Crackers in Asia have the advantage of cheaper labour but since freight cost from Asia to Europe are very high, it restricts material flows. A presentation from Asia Pacific Energy Consulting recently suggested that China might become a net importer of naphtha over the 2015�2020 period, while noting that naphtha demand has grown at a faster rate than that of gasoline in the East of Suez region. Two factors that are expected to slow the growth in China�s need for petrochemical feedstocks are the exploitation of its own shale gas resources and the current push for coal-olefins projects. China�s technically recoverable reserves are estimated at 1,275 trillion cubic feet. China�s five-year plan calls for coal-to-methanol projects to account for 20% of China olefin production.

石化原料市场的未来及其对全球石化产业的影响尚不确定。但是，当前的趋势是美国页岩气的兴起，预计将增加基于乙烯的欧洲和拉丁美洲的产品出口。但是，由于拉丁美洲和亚洲新的石化能力的潜力，这种情况使情况变得复杂，这可能会增加美国和中东供应商在高利润率欧洲市场之间的竞争数量。欧洲石化原料混合物的未来尚不清楚。一系列欧洲委员会的路线图将于2050年构想出几乎与碳中性的发电。除非可以在商业规模上开发碳捕获和储存，否则这意味着气体作为燃料的未来有限，不应过于大量投资。环保主义者尤其反对页岩气，其环境证书在欧洲受到质疑。