在总体需求疲软的情况下,由于工厂运营商与更具成本效益的石脑油基于更具成本效益的石脑油竞争的竞争,整个中国的聚乙烯植物的总体年度运营速率今年可能保持相对较低,其能力为63%至70%普拉茨计算和行业消息来源本周表示。预计今年的低运营率也来自较高的基本容量,因为2.47亿吨/年的新煤炭PE容量将在今年年底之前出现,而安装容量为1.8亿MT/截至2015年底。但是,鉴于格林菲尔德工厂通常需要几个月的时间才能进行调试和稳定,因此这些新工厂的年平均运营率今年很可能为铭牌能力的50-60%。而且,今年现有的煤炭基型体育工厂的运行预计为平均80%-85%的容量,总体年度平均运行率基于今年年底的4.27万吨/年容量为63-70%,低于63-70%去年80-85%。根据PLATTS计算,尽管如此,根据Platts计算,庞大的新的基于煤炭的PE容量将使中国的PE进口量减少到2016年的8毫升MT以上,从去年低于10万MT。这是基于所有PE工厂(包括基于NAPHTHA的单元)的80-90%运行率的估计。今年的基于煤炭的PE工厂的运行通常低于预计的运行率80-90%,因为Naphtha的价格低下,基于NAPHTHA的工厂的生产成本降低了57自2014年6月石油价格开始下跌以来的百分比,与煤炭单位相比,它们具有更具竞争力的成本竞争力。迄今为止,根据Platts石油化学分析,迄今为止,从石脑油衍生的乙烯中生产一吨PE比从煤炭到烯烃植物产生的乙烯产量的价格约为35美元。 Further downside would also come from a weak outlook for PE next year, with the market likely to continue being under pressure from an overhang of supply globally, sources said. From the Middle East, additional output is also expected -- Saudi Arabian Sadara Chemical's 350,000 mt/year low density polyethylene plant and two linear low density polyethylene lines totaling 750,000 mt/year will fully start up by end-2016; while Kuwaiti Equate's debottlenecking of its plant will add 175,000 mt/year of PE capacity. Coal-based PE capacity accounts for around 14% out of Asia's total PE capacity, versus naphtha-based PE at around 60%. PE is also manufactured from ethylene using LPG and gasoil as feedstock at steam crackers.
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